I may or may not keep doing these. Just depends on how they are received. Decided to do this today because I am awake and bored waiting for the UH game to start.
By FRED FAOUR
So we are off to a slow start to the week with Syracuse. Overall we are 6-2 overall on college football, but if you listen to twitter, I am a terrible human being because I was wrong on Syracuse. I might be a terrible human being, but it has nothing to do with my picks.
(For the record, I know when I am wrong. I see the scores. I actually have less money in my mybookie.lv account. But if you feel the need to make sure I know on Twitter…well, you probably need to get a girlfriend. Or a boyfriend. Or a blow-up doll. I do understand that when you are right about a game I’m off on, you want to brag about it. Good for you. Happy you won. Now take that money and buy that blow-up doll).
Fortunately, we have plenty to distract us today.
In Friday’s blog we hit on a few games; we will recap those and throw a few more in.
So making three solid to moderate plays today: Michigan over 53; Central Michigan-Oklahoma State over 60.5; Saskatchewan (CFL) plus 7.5 at Winnipeg.
Other games I might jump in on: Central Michigan plus 19.5 at Oklahoma State. That number has dipped. Was interested when it was closer to 21. Won’t touch it at the current number but if there is a late jump…Northern Illinois plus 15 at South Florida. The Bulls are a good team, but Northern Illinois is underrated. I like it if it stays outside 14…Washington State plus 10.5 at Boise. Cooling on this one a little but still interested.
I’m off Purdue. That number has dipped to 4.5.
One tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out (like Syracuse last night), it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings.
In the NFL, I am taking two plays: Bills plus 3.5 (small), and Saints-Raiders over 51.5 (heavy play).
Finally, if you can still get 16-1 on Team North America to win the World Cup of hockey, it is worth tossing a few bucks on.
Good luck this weekend.