So this was pretty well received last week, so we will give it another shot. Keep in mind these are opinions. And they are free. We’re not selling you picks, and you can’t move on these games as if they have already been played. If you want to learn the methodology, pick up a copy of the awesome audio book An Introduction to Sports Betting: Blitz Style. I will let you know which games I am actually playing, and also provide some opinions on other games.
Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. There are a few games this week that I will probably pass on, but the computer says play. It’s just an additional tool I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
Please use these as confirmations of your own plays or reasons to reconsider.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
I have one college play this weekend: Texas Tech -10 against Louisiana Tech. The Red Raiders are smarting after last week and will try to run it up. Their defense is a disaster, but this game has track meet written all over it, and Texas Tech has more athletes. Not a max play but a solid one.
The computer spits out a few other plays:
Texas A&M plus 3.5 at Auburn. The Aggies should be favored by three. It fits the 6-8 point threshold. Plus, I like the Aggies anyway. Might go small on it, because we still don’t have enough of a body of work for both teams yet. But this is one I like.
Kansas plus 20 at Memphis. The computer says Memphis by 11. I can’t trust Kansas, but just passing it on.
Arizona State minus 19 at UTSA. This is another line that is off by 8-10. Might play it small to have some action tonight. (BRUTAL LOSER)
Other games to consider:
Rice plus 31 at home against Baylor. The Owls are off to a slow start, but should improve. Baylor will win with ease, but Jim Grobe lacks the run it up mentality that Art Briles was famous for. Don’t know if I will pull the trigger or not but I could see the Owls covering. (WINNER)
North Dakota State plus 24 at Iowa. Have not been able to find this line on actual sites, so keep an eye and see if it comes up. NDSU is not your standard FBS program.
Missouri plus 6 against Georgia. The computer spits Missouri out as a two-point favorite. I don’t trust Missouri at all, but I am always on the wrong end with the Tigers. Not for me but if you were leaning that way anyway…
One heavy play and one so-so play….
New Orleans-New York over 52.5. Mentioned this one earlier in the week. Already punched the ticket.
Miami plus-6.5 at New England. Will keep an eye on this and see if it gets to 7. The Patriots are getting action off the upset at Arizona, but the Dolphins are capable of giving them fits and could lose a close one.
I would bet against Canada to win the World Cup of Hockey. Simply no value. They are the best team on paper, but there is value in the USA, Team North America and Sweden.
The Woodbine Mile is Saturday, and Tepin is a heavy 1-2 favorite. She has won seven in a row and is on path to try and repeat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. But she might be vulnerable here after a trip to Europe and a hard win at Royal Ascot. If you choose to play her stone on top, I would use the 1-2-3-4-7 behind her in the trifectas. If you want to take a shot at beating her (which is what I am doing), I would key the 2 horse, Mutakayef, first and second in the tris with the 1-3-4-7-8 and would drop the 6 in third on both tickets. So that ticket would look like this: 2 with 1-3-4-7-8 with 1-3-4-6-7-8 and 1-3-4-7-8 with 2 with 1-3-4-6-7-8.
If Tepin runs out of the money, we are getting paid.