Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional tool I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
Please use these as confirmations of your own plays or reasons to reconsider. Our one big play so far was on UH-UConn over, so we are off to a good start to the week.
Also, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
No prime plays this weekend, and only a couple actual games I am going to hit. But there are a few opinions to offer.
Washington mins 3.5 over Stanford: I was all set to hit the button on this, but the computer says Stanford should be a six-point favorite. That flies in the face of what everything else tells me, so I will be passing on it. But if it is a game you are looking at playing, at least there is a little more info for you.
Arizona State plus 10.5 at USC: The Sun Devils have been overlooked this season, and the Trojans are not very good. There is no way they should be double digit favorites. USC should be favored, but not by this much. A decent-sized play.
Hawaii plus 3.5 vs. Nevada: Hawaii has a new coach and has been improving slowly. They have had a week off and are making a quarterback switch. Nevada had to travel to the Midwest last week and now make the tough trip to Hawaii. Solid play.
No real strong opinions on the NFL this week, and we’ve basically been treading water on it anyway. But there is one game I like.
Redskins -7.5 over Browns: The Browns are an absolute mess. They did everything they could to lose to a terrible Dolphins team last week. The Redskins are a little overrated but they are better than the Dolphins. Miami was a 9.5 favorite and did not cover. The Redskins should. Small play.
B.C. Lions -5.5 over Ottawa: Tough trip for Ottawa, and B.C. is due for a big effort. Medium play.
I might add a play or two here on Saturday so check back then.