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Gambling guide for the weekend

So here is our weekly disclaimer: Keep in mind these are opinions. And they are free. We’re not selling you picks, and you can’t move on these games as if they have already been played. If you want to learn the methodology, pick up a copy of the awesome audio book An Introduction to Sports Betting: Blitz Style. I will let you know which games I am actually playing, and also provide some opinions on other games.

Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings.  It’s just an additional tool I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.

Please use these as confirmations of your own plays or reasons to reconsider. Our one big play so far was on UH-UConn over, so we are off to a good start to the week.

Also, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.

OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:

No prime plays this weekend, and only a couple actual games I am going to hit. But there are a few opinions to offer.

COLLEGES

Washington mins 3.5 over Stanford: I was all set to hit the button on this, but the computer says Stanford should be a six-point favorite.  That flies in the face of what everything else tells me, so I will be passing on it. But if it is a game you are looking at playing, at least there is a little more info for you.

Arizona State plus 10.5 at USC: The Sun Devils have been overlooked this season, and the Trojans are not very good. There is no way they should be double digit favorites. USC should be favored, but not by this much. A decent-sized play.

Hawaii plus 3.5 vs. Nevada: Hawaii has a new coach and has been improving slowly. They have had a week off and are making a quarterback switch. Nevada had to travel to the Midwest last week and now make the tough trip to Hawaii. Solid play.

NFL

No real strong opinions on the NFL this week, and we’ve basically been treading water on it anyway. But there is one game I like.

Redskins -7.5 over Browns: The Browns are an absolute mess. They did everything they could to lose to a terrible Dolphins team last week. The Redskins are a little overrated but they are better than the Dolphins. Miami was a 9.5 favorite and did not cover. The Redskins should. Small play.

CFL

B.C. Lions -5.5 over Ottawa: Tough trip for Ottawa, and B.C. is due for a big effort. Medium play.

HORSE RACING

I might add a play or two here on Saturday so check back then.

 

 

8 Comments on Gambling guide for the weekend

  1. No thoughts on Baylor covering 16.5 against an Iowa State team that got blown out by Iowa?

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  2. Fred, what are some of the things that had you ready to hit the button on WASH? From my looking at items WASH is built on playing weak teams and getting big turnover margins. STAN has put up equal numbers against better teams with a much worse TO ratio to work with. What am I missing?

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  3. I still like the over on Saints and Chargers. You have the number 3 and 9 scoring offenses per game going against the number 20th and 31st pts/game allowed defenses.

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  4. My concern with that is the Saints are better on offense at home. Seem to struggle more outside.

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  5. As for Washington I will go into more detail on the show today but I have decided not to play it.

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  6. Fred, you mentioned possibly liking the Cincy +4.5 at home against S. Florida. With a pretty good home field advantage, you think that will be enough for the Bearcats to show here?

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  7. Guillermo flores // October 2, 2016 at 11:36 pm // Reply

    This was my first time betting on sports and just Wanted to thank you Fred for the great info you give. I hit on the Hawaii game , the Canadian football and the redskins game.

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  8. Just started on my bookie two weeks ago after hearing the audio book. Thanks for yours and AJS opinions on the show. I’ve had a lot of fun taking your thoughts and putting my 2 sense in and squeezing out some big wins. Finally grew a pair and started putting down some big $$$ bets. For me anyway. Longtime Blitzer. Love you guys

    Like

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