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This weekend’s gambling guide

UPDATE: 1-1 last night. We hit the Clemson over (small play) and missed the Ottawa under (very small play) so up a little for the week. We were right about the Ottawa game, though. It was a lock until the last five minutes when all hell broke loose. It happens. Decisions not outcomes. We added on NFL play and some horses to watch….
So here is our weekly disclaimer: Keep in mind these are opinions. And they are free. We’re not selling you picks, and you can’t move on these games as if they have already been played. If you want to learn the methodology, pick up a copy of the awesome audio book An Introduction to Sports Betting: Blitz Style. I will let you know which games I am actually playing, and also provide some opinions on other games.

Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings.  It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.

There are also some big horse races this weekend. I will update on Saturday once I have had a chance to handicap the cards. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book. I might add a football play or two as well, so yes you will need to check back.

Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.

We are due for a bad week, but hopefully it is not this one. OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:

COLLEGES

Clemson-Boston college tonight: Over 43.5. Boston College’s defense has been solid except for its one game against a solid team: Virginia Tech was a disaster. Clemson has struggled on offense but seems to be coming around. They might hit that number by themselves. Small play.

BYU plus 5.5 at Michigan State: The Spartans should bounce back here, but BYU either wins or loses every game by three points. They match up well and this should be another close one. Medium play.

Texas Tech plus 9 at Kansas State: Kansas State is the only team in the Big 12 that plays defense. Tech plays none whatsoever. But they should be able to put up enough points to make it close. K State wins, but Tech covers. Small play.

NFL

New England -10.5 at Cleveland. The Browns have been surprisingly good against the spread, and I rarely like to give double digits in the NFL. But you have to think Tom Brady is going to be motivated to put on a show and the Pats are going to want to bounce back in a big way after last week. Think this one gets ugly. Solid play.

San Diego-Oakland over 51. This is an added game. Oakland’s defense is improving, but still shaky, and San Diego can score on anyone. They can’t stop anyone though. The Chargers are the kings of 58 minute football. Expect another shootout and last second loss.

CFL

Saskatchewan-Ottawa under 52. The Riders are actually playing better defense. Ottawa is coming off a tough loss in B.C. and has had some games where they just simply could not score. Very small play.

Calgary -9 at Toronto (small play) and over 54.5 (medium play). The Stamps are crushing everything in sight and the Argos are in a death spin. Calgary should feast early and often and put up a chunk of points doing it.

HORSE RACING

 

There are some terrific races at Keeneland and Belmont today. We have a few plays we are looking at, most at good prices. We really only have to be right on one of these to make a profit:

Race 5, Keeneland: No. 7 Hogy is consistent, in good form and 10-1. This distance should hit him right between the eyes.

Race 8, Keeneland: No. 12 Lookin at Lee is stuck in the 12 post, but like his only two-turn race and there should be pace to  run down. Probably like him more in the second and third slots than on top and not sure how I am going to play it yet, but he is worth a look at 10-1.

Race 9, Keeneland: No. 3 Tower of Texas is 20-1 in this field, probably because he raced in Canada. But his last three are strong, and in his last race, he just missed against the brilliant filly Tepin, who is running earlier on the card. That race would win this easily. There are a lot of good horses in here, so he is 20-1 for a reason. But he has a legitimate shot. Will be playing across the board and working out some exacta/trifecta combinations using the 1-4-6-8-9-10-11 in some fashion.

Race 7, Belmont: No. 10 Green Mask has been a money burner for me, but think he is in the right spot for a win. Playing him across the board.

 

 

 

16 Comments on This weekend’s gambling guide

  1. Hey Fred, This football year is my first year listening to the show and trying out mybookie. Thanks to your picks I’ve doubled my money so far. My question is, how much money are you comfortable with cashing out on mybookie? My nightmare is I try to cash out and something goes wrong for whatever reason.

    P.S. Thanks for the great picks and love the show

    Like

  2. I would cash out what you have won so far and leave your original investment. I have a monthly budget. If I lose it, I am out for the month. If I win up to 4x, I cash out the profit.

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  3. And that’s the over for Clemson.

    I have Houston and navy on the over tomorrow.

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  4. Took the over on Clemson as well. Thanks Fred! Great show, listen to you and AJ every afternoon.

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  5. Bet more on the Clemson over than the sk under but hate that was a loss. Looked like a lock with 8 minutes left that we would go 2-0. Should have taken sk plus the points instead. First CFL loss after an 8-0 run

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  6. Thank you for taking the time to do this for us degenerate! Do you ever play parlays?

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  7. Thnks for the Clemson pick last night. I wasn’t sure about the play because of the struggling offense and I honestly didn’t even think about the over. Thanks again for the good advice. You are always on it.

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  8. Very rarely. We talk about it a lot in the audio book. The value never equals the odds against hitting it.

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  9. Best online bookie?
    Fred great job on the site

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  10. What size play is the sd-oak play?

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  11. mybookie.lv promo code fred….and I have not decided on raiders. depends on how I do today. Thinking medium play

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  12. Ethan Bergen // October 9, 2016 at 2:58 am // Reply

    Nice! 3-0 today thanks Fred

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  13. Doing great today.

    Over on Houston
    Over on Michigan
    +10.5 on Texas Tech

    Tomorrow should be good too.

    Like

  14. Man Fred you are killing it on college football and o. The horses. Keep up the good work my man!!

    Like

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