Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
There are also some big horse races this weekend. I will update on Saturday once I have had a chance to handicap the cards. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book. I might add a football play or two as well, so yes you will need to check back.
Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.
We are due for a bad week, but hopefully it is not this one. OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
Clemson-Boston college tonight: Over 43.5. Boston College’s defense has been solid except for its one game against a solid team: Virginia Tech was a disaster. Clemson has struggled on offense but seems to be coming around. They might hit that number by themselves. Small play.
BYU plus 5.5 at Michigan State: The Spartans should bounce back here, but BYU either wins or loses every game by three points. They match up well and this should be another close one. Medium play.
Texas Tech plus 9 at Kansas State: Kansas State is the only team in the Big 12 that plays defense. Tech plays none whatsoever. But they should be able to put up enough points to make it close. K State wins, but Tech covers. Small play.
New England -10.5 at Cleveland. The Browns have been surprisingly good against the spread, and I rarely like to give double digits in the NFL. But you have to think Tom Brady is going to be motivated to put on a show and the Pats are going to want to bounce back in a big way after last week. Think this one gets ugly. Solid play.
San Diego-Oakland over 51. This is an added game. Oakland’s defense is improving, but still shaky, and San Diego can score on anyone. They can’t stop anyone though. The Chargers are the kings of 58 minute football. Expect another shootout and last second loss.
Saskatchewan-Ottawa under 52. The Riders are actually playing better defense. Ottawa is coming off a tough loss in B.C. and has had some games where they just simply could not score. Very small play.
Calgary -9 at Toronto (small play) and over 54.5 (medium play). The Stamps are crushing everything in sight and the Argos are in a death spin. Calgary should feast early and often and put up a chunk of points doing it.
There are some terrific races at Keeneland and Belmont today. We have a few plays we are looking at, most at good prices. We really only have to be right on one of these to make a profit:
Race 5, Keeneland: No. 7 Hogy is consistent, in good form and 10-1. This distance should hit him right between the eyes.
Race 8, Keeneland: No. 12 Lookin at Lee is stuck in the 12 post, but like his only two-turn race and there should be pace to run down. Probably like him more in the second and third slots than on top and not sure how I am going to play it yet, but he is worth a look at 10-1.
Race 9, Keeneland: No. 3 Tower of Texas is 20-1 in this field, probably because he raced in Canada. But his last three are strong, and in his last race, he just missed against the brilliant filly Tepin, who is running earlier on the card. That race would win this easily. There are a lot of good horses in here, so he is 20-1 for a reason. But he has a legitimate shot. Will be playing across the board and working out some exacta/trifecta combinations using the 1-4-6-8-9-10-11 in some fashion.
Race 7, Belmont: No. 10 Green Mask has been a money burner for me, but think he is in the right spot for a win. Playing him across the board.