Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
There are also some quality horse races this weekend. I will update on Saturday once I have had a chance to handicap the cards. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book. I might add a football play or two as well, so yes you will need to check back.
Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.
Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy is on a good run. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
Duke-Louisville over 70: A big number to be sure, but Louisville’s offense is an unstoppable force. Duke should be able to score enough, too. Medium play. LOSS
Umass plus 14.5 vs. Louisiana Tech: La Tech is a solid team and is coming off a huge emotional win against Western Kentucky. They are do for letdown and take a tough trip to UMass. UMass is not good, but they have been solid against the spread when facing better teams. Getting that half point outside of 14 is key. Small play. LOSS
Kansas State plus-13 at Oklahoma: The Sooners come off a showdown win with Texas, and like the game above, there has to be a letdown. K State is the only school in the Big 12 that plays defense. Keep an eye on this line; it has been trending upward all week and if it gets to 14, pounce. Medium play at 14. Small play at 13. LOSS
UTSA -3 at Rice. Rice is terrible. UTSA should roll here. Medium play. LOSS
Hawaii -9 vs. UNLV. The late-night get out game. Hawaii is much improved and this is the best homefield edge in college football (due to the travel). Small play. LOSS
Two games we dropped: Tech plus 1 at home against West Virginia (computer says WVA by 5 so we will pass). Stanford plus 3 at Notre Dame. The computer says Stanford by 6, which means it should be a play. But the injuries for Stanford concern me. Still, might add this one late if the early games go well. Check back on Saturday.
Saints-Panthers over 53: We will keep riding the Saints at home overs (53) especially since Carolina’s defense is bad. Cam Newton should be back and the Panthers will score a lot, too. Small play.
Buffalo-San Francisco over 44.5. Both teams score more than you would expect. Also like totals that are relatively low compared to a large spread. Medium play.
Calgary-Montreal over 52: Calgary has been money on overs. They might get the 52 by themselves. Medium play. LOSS
Saskatchewan (pick ’em) over Toronto: The two doggiest teams in the league square off. The difference is Toronto is playing like garbage and SK has won three in a row after a dreadful start. They suck less than Toronto. Small play. WIN (Thank Tebow).
Woodbine Race 8: This is a very competitive group. I tend to lean Euros in these big Canadian stakes races, and here I will be playing No. 1 Swiss Range across the board. Might go off a little longer than the 6-1 morning line. No. 7 Al’s Gal might be worth a look at 10-1 as well.
Woodbine Race 9: No. 5 Dartmouth is 7-2 but there are two or three others in here who should take some money so I expect that to be close to the price. Will play him across the board.
Also looking at a .50 pick 4 in race 8. You can actually bet it for .20…
Race 10: 2 3 7 8
Race 11: 1 3 6
If you want a more inexpensive play, let’s get bold and single the 1 in race 8….
So race 8: 1
Race 9: 3 5 8 9
Race 10: 2 3 7 8
Race 11: 1 3 6