Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
The horse racing schedule is not as sexy. I will be looking at Belmont, Woodbine, Santa Anita and perhaps Delta and will find a few races to play. I will update on Saturday once I have had a chance to handicap the cards. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.
Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.
Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
San Diego State-San Jose State over 48. We like low totals in games with big spreads (this one is SDSU -23). The implication is SDSU can cover on its own. Solid play. LOSS. Three points short but a loss is a loss.
Old Dominion plus 14.5 at Western Kentucky: Back to 14 now but tipped to 14.5 briefly, so I hit it at that. Keep an eye; if it gets outside 14 again hit it. Solid play. LOSS
Arkansas plus 10.5 at Auburn. This almost feels like a sucker bet, but these teams are pretty equal. Medium play. LOSS
Non-play opinions: UMass burned us last week, but they are plus 20.5 at South Carolina. You know how many times SC has scored 21 points this season? As many times as I have. Let’s add this as a small play. (WIN). The only game to fall in the 7-point computer range would be Western Michigan, which is minus-24 but the computer says minus-31. Awful big spread. And of course everyone wants to know about A&M-Alabama. Absolute no play for me. Guess I would lean A&M to cover if you have to do something. But remember, you don’t.
Cleveland plus-10 at Cincinnati. The Browns have not won, but they really aren’t that awful. They are pretty well coached. They have been solid against the spread. And hey, it’s Cleveland’s year, right? Small play. LOSS
Saskatchewan is still -6.5. Ticket already punched. Will continue to ride with this team until they let us down. Solid play. LOSS
Might add some more to this later today, but here is what we have so far:
So we have a late pick three play at Woobine for .50:
Race 8: 2 3 4 6 7 9 10
Total play is $31.50 for .50. I will likely hit it for a buck and spend $63. LOSS
I also handicapped Belmont races 3-10. These aren’t in order, just a list of horses I am going to throw in to pick threes, pick fours, exactas, tris, etc. So no specific plays, but some horses to work with. I think you can single the last two races but the horses in parenthesis can be used if you want to take a shot at beating the favorites or you need something to use in trifectas. The weather is lousy there so we capped for an off track. Two of these races are scheduled for the turf and if they come off, that changes everything.
Here they are:
Race 3: 1 3 4
Race 4: 2 3