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The weekend gambling guide with colleges, NFL, CFL and horses

So last week started off as an unmitigated disaster. But thanks to a couple nice NFL hits and most of all our good friends north of the border at Woodbine, we managed to salvage the weekend. We are already off to a good start this week with BYU covering last night. But after the bloodbath from last Saturday, we are treading cautiously this week. We have climbed back to 5-6 over the last week, which came on the heels of a 7-0 run, so things are starting to find their level.
This weekend was worse. Sorry. It happens. Officially our first losing weekend of the year.
So here is our weekly disclaimer: Keep in mind these are opinions. And they are free. We’re not selling you picks, and you can’t move on these games as if they have already been played. If you want to learn the methodology, pick up a copy of the awesome audio book An Introduction to Sports Betting: Blitz Style. I will let you know which games I am actually playing, and also provide some opinions on other games.

Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings.  It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.

The horse racing schedule is not as sexy. I will be looking at Belmont, Woodbine, Santa Anita and perhaps Delta and will find a few races to play. I will update on Saturday once I have had a chance to handicap the cards. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.

Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.

Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.

OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:

COLLEGES

San Diego State-San Jose State over 48. We like low totals in games with big spreads (this one is SDSU -23). The implication is SDSU can cover on its own. Solid play. LOSS. Three points short but a loss is a loss.

Old Dominion plus 14.5 at Western Kentucky: Back to 14 now but tipped to 14.5 briefly, so I hit it at that. Keep an eye; if it gets outside 14 again hit it. Solid play. LOSS

Arkansas plus 10.5 at Auburn. This almost feels like a sucker bet, but these teams are pretty equal. Medium play. LOSS

Non-play opinions: UMass burned us last week, but they are plus 20.5 at South Carolina. You know how many times SC has scored 21 points this season? As many times as I have. Let’s add this as a small play. (WIN). The only game to fall in the 7-point computer range would be Western Michigan, which is minus-24 but the computer says minus-31. Awful big spread. And of course everyone wants to know about A&M-Alabama. Absolute no play for me. Guess I would lean A&M to cover if you have to do something. But remember, you don’t.

NFL

Cleveland plus-10 at Cincinnati. The Browns have not won, but they really aren’t that awful. They are pretty well coached. They have been solid against the spread. And hey, it’s Cleveland’s year, right? Small play. LOSS

CFL

Saskatchewan is still -6.5. Ticket already punched. Will continue to ride with this team until they let us down. Solid play. LOSS

HORSES

Might add some more to this later today, but here is what we have so far:

So we have a late pick three play at Woobine for .50:

Race 8: 2 3 4 6 7 9 10

Race 9: 2 3 7
Race 10: 4 6 9

Total play is $31.50 for .50. I will likely hit it for a buck and spend $63. LOSS

I also handicapped Belmont races 3-10. These aren’t in order, just a list of horses I am going to throw in to pick threes, pick fours, exactas, tris, etc. So no specific plays, but some horses to work with. I think you can single the last two races but the horses in parenthesis can be used if you want to take a shot at beating the favorites or you need something to use in trifectas. The weather is lousy there so we capped for an off track. Two of these races are scheduled for the turf and if they come off, that changes everything.

Here they are:

Race 3: 1 3 4

Race 4: 2 3

Race 5: 1 3 4 7 9
Race 6:  1 6 7 8
Race 7:  4 6 7 8 10
Race 8:  Lots of scratches…just hit the all ball
Race 9: OFF TURF …2-7-10. Changes from this morning
Race 10:2 (6 9)…
I managed to hit enough here to lessen the damage. Sorry guys, bad week overall

 

27 Comments on The weekend gambling guide with colleges, NFL, CFL and horses

  1. How about the Michigan over at 55 when they are a 39 point favorite? Similar thought as the SDSU spread and cover, right?

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  2. Same concept, yes. I like SDSU because it is under 50.

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  3. Jose Silva (The_Hozay) // October 22, 2016 at 1:39 pm // Reply

    Fred, how do you feel about the going vs the public tactic and rolling with vegas. im not sure if home dogs have same value in college but i see alot of home dogs where public is heavily on the other side (by heavily i mean 72% and larger). Iowa, SMU, KState, Maryland, Penn St. Public is also all over A & M and Points 24% on Tide -17.5. Thoughts?

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  4. I don’t have any hard and fast rules, but I do feel better about my play when I am on the opposite side of the public money. That’s why I like having RJ on, so we can talk about who the pros are betting.

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  5. Your about to be 0-8 last week ad this week for your college picks. Not good.

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  6. Comments like that are why I am about to quit doing this. I KNOW when I lose, chief. My account tells me,

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  7. And maybe you can’t read but I added Mass as a play today. That was a win. But don’t let that stop you from being a jerk.

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  8. I’ve hit on the following this week

    Green Bay
    BYU
    Wyoming
    I’ve got Oklahoma at -13, so far so good.

    Auburn is killing me and WKU.

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  9. And I guess you missed the biggest play of the week on BYU plus 7 Thursday. But again, your math is awesome.

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    • I really need to login when commenting. I think this was for the other anonymous. I actually played BYU at -7 after I asked about it there vs -6.5.

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  10. BYU was plus 7, not minus 7.

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    • My bad. As you can see I’m out of it. Stomach bug, haven’t ate in 2 days. What I was getting at is you’ve helped me win quite a bit this year, and you always respond to questions. Ignore the jerks above, the majority of us are grateful for your insights.

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  11. Seriously, fuck the haters. What you give out for free is more valuable than most of the shit I can pay for. The picks are just icing. The knowledge you spread is invaluable to a degenerate like myself. Fact is, I’m going to gamble. Feel much better doing it with the knowledge you’ve given me since I moved to Houston in 2013.

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  12. How did the horses do today? Trying to get into it.

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  13. Fred,
    Screw the haters. You don’t do the picks for them. They will always be there when you lose but will be under that rock in corner when you win waiting to kick you. I appreciate all the insight and keep the picks coming. A big week is coming!!!! It happens mate as you probably know best.

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  14. His horse picks at Belmont today were spot on! Made a good bit of money on several daily doubles based solely on his picks. Thanks Fred very grateful for your advise.

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  15. I just had an idea. How about Thursday before you release your picks you put up for people to put their picks (I usually have mine solidified by then, I may add or drop 1 or 2 after reading your post, but usually I’m settled in). Then you can troll them.

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  16. What’s up Fred. Fuck the dude that left that comment. Do let him get in your head. Also, I love betting on the horses, I hit a $200 exacta box. I’m still learning other types of bets, but my dumbass gets confused on how to read your picks. That’s why I just put them all in a box. Am I able to email you any questions I have or just message you on here?

    Like

  17. You can always email me at faour975@gmail.com

    Like

  18. Clayton Corne // October 23, 2016 at 3:46 pm // Reply

    Ok. So I was the guy who made the 0-8 comment. Fred, I’m sorry. That was chicken shit of me. Please consider to continue giving us your insight.

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  19. I meant to say don’t let him get in your head. My bad

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  20. Keep up the good work Fred, love the show and the website. Fuck the haters. Keep them picks coming.

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  21. I don’t know why people are on here getting butt hurt. These are your opinions and more often than not they are right. They could use their own if they wanted. If they would listen to the show they would get probably twice the amount of good info on games y’all end up not playing. I can’t thank you enough, keep it up.

    Like

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