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The Breeders’ Cup gambling guide for Friday’s races

She's big. She's fast. And there is usually no horse around her. She is Songbird, the star of today's BC races.

So today begins the two days of Breeders’ Cup races. I love some bombs on Saturday and you can get those picks here. Today will hopefully be a bankroll builder.

Here is how this works: I have provided my top four picks in each race, other horses I am going to consider using, and some possible plays. A few plays are left open ended because I won’t make any final decisions until I have seen how the track is playing and what the odds are. Some I spell out specifically, because I don’t see a lot that will change my mind. You will need some knowledge of horse racing to understand the lingo. (Basically I am assuming you have read Acing Racing or listened to Acing Racing 2016).  If not? Well, no you know where to find them.

As always, these are opinions designed to supplement your own thoughts on the races. Think of it as having a discussion with a friend (or maybe just a jerk you respect) about the races and what to play. I also give you a confidence level rating to let you know how good (or bad) I feel about a particular race. If it’s a 5, I am unloading. A 1? Not so much.

So let’s dive in. If there is something you would like me to add for Saturday, please let me know.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Race 6, Santa Anita)

This one is completely wide open, and we generally favor the Europeans in the Juvy turf races. Almost any horse in here can win this. We will key around No. 1 Lancaster Bomber at 6-1 and hope for the best. She seems to be the best of the Euros.

The picks: 1-5-8-12. Others to use: 2-6-11-13. Possible play: Key No. 1 with the horses listed above first and second in exactas and tris. A pick four play on these races can be found after race 10 below. The same strategy applies for the two pick threes in the sequence.

RESULT: Hit the exacta.

Confidence level (out of five): 1.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Race 7, Santa Anita)

Dortmund will take most of the money here, and Runhappy might get bet as well. Of the two, Dortmund is more likely to have an impact on the finish. Gun Runner shortens up and might be solid value here at 9-2. I expect that price to go up. Several long shots could wind up in the mix — Vyjack, Point Piper, Accelerate, Texas Chrome and Tom’s Ready will all be big prices. We will key around Dortmund and Gun Runner and toss Runhappy, taking a stand against him.

The picks: 9-3-2-1. Others to use: 4-5-6. Our trifecta plays will go 3-9 with 1-2-3-5-6-9 with 1-2-3-4-5-6-9.

Confidence level: 3.

RESULT: Missed. Tamaruz made no sense to me, but he rolled.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile filly turf (Race 8, Santa Anita)

Again, we will look to the European runners, and Hydrangea has been ultra consistent. Spain Berg, Intricately, Roly Poly and Cavale Doree are other Euros to use. Of the American-based runners, New Money Honey looks solid, but have to wonder if her impressive last win came because of yielding turf. She won’t get that here.

The picks: 1-7-4-14. Others to use: 3-5-8-13. Possible plays: keying the 1-7 in exactas or tris with the 1-3-4-5-8-13.

Confidence level: 2.

Result: Missed. Neither the 1 nor 7 fired.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Race 9, Santa Anita)

Songbird is an absolute machine. She is unbeaten in 11 starts, including five at Santa Anita. No horse has finished within three lengths of her. She has not faced the quality of a Stellar Wind or Beholder, and this will be her first start against older horses, so if you want to take a stab against her, now is probably the time. Sam Houston Distaff winner Forever Unbridled, Curalina and I’m A Chatterbox could be price plays to break up the big three, but don’t expect anything too sinister here.

The picks: 1-5-8-6. Others to use: 2-3-7. Possible plays: Songbird on top in the trifecta: 1 with 2-3-5-6-7-8. If you think Songbird can be beaten, how about using Forever Unbridled as a back end play, going 1-5-7-8 with 6 with 1-2-3-5-7-8 and 1-5-7-8 with 1-2-3-5-7-8 with 6. Plus you still catch if Songbird wins and Forever Unbridled hits the board. In this bet we are gambling that Forever Unbridled can beat either Stellar Wind or Beholder. But it also might be as simple as a 1 over 5-8 over 5-8 trifecta.

RESULT: The Forever Unbridled keyed 2/3 trifecta hit.

Confidence level: 4.

Pick 4/3 strategies: As for pick fours, go deep in the first and third legs, using as many horses as possible.We will go 3-9 in the dirt mile and single Songbird in the finale as hopefully a free square. If you want to take a shot at beating her, I would consider Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled, and go shorter in the first and third legs, using the top three  horses in leg 1 and top 5 in leg 3.

One pick four I will play for sure: 1-2-5-8-11-12-13 with 3-9 with 1-3-4-7-14 with 1 for .50. That will cost you $35. RESULT: Missed.

Overall? I made a whole $11 profit. That’s good for one craft beer. Better days tomorrow.

5 Comments on The Breeders’ Cup gambling guide for Friday’s races

  1. All these plays are Friday, right?

    Like

  2. Yes.

    Like

  3. You killed it for me on the Belmount and Preakness I dont bet often ya bailed me out on those days thank ya jd

    Like

  4. Thanks for posting your
    Picks for free on a day where most handicappers don’t
    Been waiting on Channel Marker to run back 30 to 1 with Johnny V has me calling in sick tomorrow

    Like

  5. Fred, there is no write up under the picture for today’s picks. I don’t know if its just me or the page. Checked on both laptop and phone. It was up last night when I looked at it though. Thank in advance and appreciate your insight!

    Like

2 Trackbacks / Pingbacks

  1. Some under the radar movies to watch this weekend, gambling, Karbach sale, a kick in the ‘nads and what happens when you OD on energy drinks: The update for Nov. 4 – Houstonsportsandstuff.com
  2. Bombs away: The ultimate betting guide for Saturday’s Breeders Cup races – Houstonsportsandstuff.com

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