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(UPDATED) Bombs away: The ultimate betting guide for Saturday’s Breeders Cup races, college football, NFL and CFL

California Chrome tries to turn the tables on Arrogate.

Here it is, the ultimate betting guide to Saturday’s races. I put a ton of effort into this, so I hope you find it useful. I am usually good for a couple big prices a year.

Friday we hit bets on the first and last races. The Beholder-Songbird race was one for the ages. I made a whopping $11 profit on the day. Let’s hope today is better. Also, added some football plays at the bottom.

Here is how this works: I have provided my top four picks in each race, other horses I am going to consider using, and some possible plays.  You will need some knowledge of horse racing to understand the lingo. (Basically I am assuming you have read Acing Racing or listened to Acing Racing 2016).  If not? Well, now you know where to find them. I will likely change a few things so check back on Saturday.

Also, for past performances, I prefer Daily Racing Form’s Formulator. If you want free PPs, check out downthestretches.com.

As always, these are opinions designed to supplement your own thoughts on the races. Think of it as having a discussion with a friend (or maybe just a jerk you respect) about the races and what to play. I also give you a confidence level rating to let you know how good (or bad) I feel about a particular race. If it’s a 5, I am unloading. A 1? Not so much.

So here we go:

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fillies (Race 4, Santa Anita)

This is a race historically dominated by favorites. This year, however, there does not seem to be a standout. Noted and Quoted won the local prep for this, and Sweet Loretta is a perfect 3 for 3. Union Strike will take some action as well as will American Gal. We will roll with a long shot, Daddy’s Lil Darling at 12-1. She has more speed than she showed in her last, and a powerful stretch kick could put her in the mix at a nice price.

The picks: 11-5-8-4. Others to use: 2-3-9-10-12. Possible plays: Not getting cute. Betting the 11 across the board. We will tier this bet, playing more to show and place than win. Basically double each play. So for instance if you are a minimum bankroll, $2 to win, $4 to place, $8 to show. Bigger bankroll: $10 to win, $20 to place, $40 show. And so on…

Confidence level: 3.

Breeders’ Cup Filly Mare Turf (Race 5, Santa Anita)

European star Seventh Heaven looks like the horse to beat, and if she is on her game, she should roll. But she does throw in the occasional turd. In her eight starts, she has four wins and four out of the money finishes, so she is all or nothing. If the nothing happens, this thing is wide open. Al’s Gal is a nice filly who has really come into her own. Catch A Glimpse is the probably pace setter and she could be dangerous on a lonely lead. Lady Eli and Sea Calisi are consistent. Euros Queen’s Trust and Pretty Perfect could be factors. Nuovo Record has been competitive in Japan and Hong Kong and could be a surprise contender. So we are going to go for the kill shot here and bett against Seventh Heaven.

The picks: 5-13-11-12. Others to use: 1-2-3-4-8. Possible plays: Exacta wheels using 5-13 with 1-2-3-4-5-8-11-12-13 and 1-2-3-4-5-8-11-12-13 with 5-13.

Confidence level: 2.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Race 6, Santa Anita)

A couple of really big scratches — including our top pick — have changed this race  significantly. Basically this comes down to A.P. Indian, Drefong and Masochistic, with no real value.

The updated picks: 5-2-7-1. Others to use: Maybe no. 9 but that is stretching it.

Possible plays: With the scratches, don’t see much value in anything other than pick threes using 2-5-7-1. Maybe backwheel the 1 in second and third in the trifectas with those three horses and hoping he cracks the board.

Confidence level: 3.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Race 7, Santa Anita)

I am not going to lie; I do not think I have ever cashed a ticket on this race. This one looks as inscrutable as ever. We will go light here, but Obviously shortens up, loves Santa Anita, has excellent route speed that should translate and has a win at the distance back in the day. He tends to come up a little short in the stretch but maybe with the shorter distance, today is his day.

The picks: 2-4-5-8. Others to use: All of them. Not kidding. It’s that wide open. Possible plays: Wheel Obviously up and down in the exactas with everybody.

Confidence level: 1.

Breeders Cup Juvenile (Race 8, Santa Anita)

There are some nice 2 year olds in here, but we like Klimt from the Bob Baffert barn. Nice rail draw, should get some pace to run at and should improve in his second start around two turns. Classic Empire has been unbeatable when he has kept his jockey on his back. Not This Time freaked in the slop in his last but we will see if that form holds on a fast track. Theory has a ton of talent but has just two races and has not been beyond six furlongs. Lookin’ at Lee is a stone closer who could get a piece.

The picks: 1-5-11-4. Others to use: 6-9-10. Possible plays: Will key 1 first and second in the trifectas with 5-6-9-10-11. If you are better funded, throw in the 7 as well. If you are short stacked, exacta plays the same way.

Confidence level: 3.

Breeders Cup Turf (Race 9, Santa Anita)

Kicks off the late pick four, and most of the attention will be on the 1-2 finishers from the Arc, Found and Highland Reel. But Found ran another race two weeks later and this might be too much. Ectot is an interesting horse. He wired a nice field at Belmont on yielding turf, which generally favors early speed. But Santa Anita favors speed, too, and he might find himself lonely on the lead. Mondialiste has been knocking heads with the best milers in the world, and those horses might be better than these, so we will give him a long look as well. Flintshire is damned consistent but has a habit of running second.

The picks: 12-10-6-3. Others to use: 2-4. Possible plays: Let’s key Highland Reel 1-2 in the tris with 2-4-3-6-10. Will go six deep in the pick four here.

Confidence level: 2.

Breeders’ Cup Filly Mare Sprint (Race 10, Santa Anita)

Absolutely love a price here in 8-1 shot Tara’s Tango. She runs well at Santa Anita, needed her last and got hooked up with Beholder and Stellar Wind, so the race does not look great on paper. But the turnback in distance and easier foes make her a nice play at the price.

The picks: 3-7-2-11. Others to use: 1-6-7-8-10. Possible plays: Not going to get cute here, either. Playing No. 3 across the board at anything over 6-1. This will be an even play, unlike our earlier tiered play. Same amount to win, place and show.

Confidence level: 4.

Breeders Cup Mile (Race 11, Santa Anita)

Defending champ Tepin had an 8-race winning streak snapped in her last, when Photo Call got an easy lead, freaked and ran the race of her life. Photo Call is going to face plenty of pace pressure here and is unlikely to be a factor. Thanks to that race, we get a juicy 3-1 on an outstanding filly. If she loses this time, it will likely be to one of the Euros, Alice Springs, Limato or possible long shots Spectre or Cougar Mountain.

The picks: 8-2-10-3. Others to use: 2-4-7-12-14. Possible plays: If Tepin really goes off at 3-1, we will hit her on the win end. I also like the idea of keying her 1-2 in the tris with the 2-3-4-7-10-12-14. If you don’t have enough funds, consider doing that in the exacta.

Confidence level: 4.

Breeders’ Cup Classic (Race 12, Santa Anita)

California Chrome is strictly the horse to beat. He has won six straight, 7 of 9 and 15 of 24 lifetime. He has not been worse than second since 2014 (when he was third). But there are some reasons to try to beat him. He is at his best when he makes an easy lead. There are others here quick enough to go with him should they choose. He doesn’t need the lead to win, but surely these pinhead jockeys know they can’t let him go, right? (Famous last words). Even if he does clear, and he probably will, there are two horses that have run races strong enough to beat him — Frosted and Arrogate. Frosted’s Met Mile was off the charts, but he lacks the consistency of Chrome and that race came back in June. Chrome dusted him in Dubai, but that was a tough trip for everybody and this could play out differently. Frosted will offer some value because of that loss in March and a troubled third in his prep for this. Arrogate is a different concern. He has only five starts, with four straight wins. The most recent was by far the most impressive race run by any horse this year in a dazzling 13-length win in the Travers. But that was his only stakes start, he has not raced since and it could have simply been a fluke. Hard to see anyone else besides those three winning this. Melatonin, Hoppertunity, and Effinex are all nice horses that could hit the board. Shaman Ghost, in our plays earlier, was scratched.

The picks: 4-2-10-1. Others to use: 6-9. Possible plays: Not much money to be made in the tris or exactas here. Probably just play pick 3s and 4s to the 2-4-10.

Confidence level: 4.

Late pick four play: 2-3-4-6-10-12 with 3 with 2-3-8-10-14 with 2-4-10. ($45 for .50). You can also single Chrome in the last and add the 2-7 in leg 2 for the same price.

Late pick three plays: 2-3-7-11 with 2-3-8-10-12 with 2-4-10. Then a second ticket with 2-3-7-11 with 2-3-8-10-12 with 4. And one for grins: 3 with 8 with ALL.

Good luck.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

We gave out Tulsa on the show, but that number has jumped considerably, so we will pass.

Auburn-Vanderbilt over 44.5: The Tigers might hit this number themselves. Always like taking overs in that situation. Medium play.

TCU plus 7.5 at Baylor: The Frogs are down this year, but can score enough to keep it close. The hook here is big. Small play.

NFL

LA plus 3 against Carolina: The Rams aren’t good, but getting points at home against a Panthers team that is likely overvalued after last week’s win against a tired Arizona team. Small play.

New Orleans-San Francisco under 52.5. Saints have been money on overs, but they don’t score as much on the road and the 49ers can’t do much on offense. Small play.

CFL

Hamilton-Montreal under 46.5. Low number for a CFL game, but this should be low scoring. Very small play.

 

 

7 Comments on (UPDATED) Bombs away: The ultimate betting guide for Saturday’s Breeders Cup races, college football, NFL and CFL

  1. Love that you’re doing picks still. Hope to swing by the track tomorrow

    Like

  2. Good stuff. Cashed a monster trifecta ticket with the Belmont this year thanks to you Fred.

    Like

  3. Eldridge Ravey // November 5, 2016 at 5:24 pm // Reply

    Wow! Thanks for all of the work on the horses. I like several of your football picks! Good luck.

    Like

  4. So unlucky on the Auburn game. If that running back didn’t get hurt that was a win.

    Like

  5. I stay away from horses because I don’t understand it. But had a great day on games today. I love San Diego/Tennessee over for tomorrow. Am I missing something?

    Like

  6. I made a lot of money on dog racing. Never could win in horse racing

    Like

  7. Fred, great work as always! Love the show and the website! You guys do a fantastic job! Enough drooling now I’ll get to it…..

    Missed on a 9-team 6-point NFL teaser (instead of a parlay of course) on Green Bay -1.5 paying out +2000 odds!!…I know parlays don’t give much value, but what is your take on teasers, and do you ever play them with certain odds?

    Like

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