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Weekly gambling guide with NFL, CFL plays for today

(Skip down to the picks if you have already seen this)
Well, 7-2 so far this week. Which is good, because our horse plays did not go well. We were frustratingly close to a couple big scores, but oh well. At least we are back on the right track on sports.
So here is our weekly disclaimer: Keep in mind these are opinions. And they are free. We’re not selling you picks, and you can’t move on these games as if they have already been played. If you want to learn the methodology, pick up a copy of the awesome audio book An Introduction to Sports Betting: Blitz Style. I will let you know which games I am actually playing, and also provide some opinions on other games.

Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings.  It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.

The horse racing schedule is basically all about Delta Downs. We already published the betting guide. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.

Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.

OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Memphis -7 at Cincinnati: The Tigers are on a roll and Cincy is struggling badly, even at home. Off-Saturday home dogs are usually gold, but the computer also says Memphis should be -13. Solid play. WIN

SMU plus 13 over South Florida: USF is one of the best teams in the conference, but SMU has played better of late and should be able to stay within the number. Keep an eye on this until the last minute. The line has been creeping upward and if it gets to 14 I will up the bet. Small play. WIN.

Duke plus 7 at Pitt: The Panthers have to have a letdown after last week, and Duke is not a slouch despite the record. Small play. LOSS.

ULL plus-23 at Georgia: ULL is not great, but Georgia is coming off an emotional win and has a rivalry game next week. The Bulldogs have struggled to score at times this season so asking them to cover 23 might be a bit much. Might lean toward the over as well (44.5) Very small play on both. WIN/WIN.

NFL

Indianapolis -2.5 vs Tennessee:: The Titans are coming off a monster win over the Packers, but Andrew Luck has never lost to Tennessee, the Colts are coming off a bye and are at home. Indy should win this. Solid play as long as it stays inside 3.

Green Bay-Washington OVER 49: Washington is probably winning this game, but I will monitor the line to see if it gets under 3. If not? Like the over  lot. Green Bay’s defense is a mess and Kirk Cousins plays well at home. Will likely be a shootout. Solid play.

CFL

Edmonton -2 at Ottawa: The Esks should take this and advance to the Grey Cup, where they will get mashed by Calgary. Edmonton lost in its only trip to Ottawa earlier this year, but I like teams that had to play the extra game and I think Edmonton is just the better team right now.

3 Comments on Weekly gambling guide with NFL, CFL plays for today

  1. Which one is your favorite play of the year that you mentioned in the morning post? Great show as always!

    Like

  2. Sorry should have mentioned it was Memphis. Was trying to do it on breaks during the show.

    Like

  3. Good call on Memphis. Couldn’t punch a ticket before taking off on my flight! Listen to your show everyday after work in Pittsburgh. Sports

    Like

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