Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
We are pretty much done with horse racing until Sam Houston starts in January. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.
Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way.
Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
UConn plus 1 vs. Tulane: The Huskies can’t score. But they play really solid defense. Tulane just is not that good. UConn should scare up enough offense to pull this one off. Small play.
Kentucky plus-26 at Louisville: The Cardinals will have motivation problems after having their playoff hopes dashed last week. Kentucky is not a bad team. Louisville wins but hard to see them covering 26. Solid play.
Old Dominion -14 over Florida International: Old Dominion is a really solid team and has been a moneymaker all year. FIU is not good. Strong play.
Hawaii -7.5 over UMass: UMass is a solid team despite its record, but this is a tough trip for a school like this. Solid play.
Saints -7 over the Rams: LA can’t score. The Saints can’t stop anyone. But they should be good enough to cover in this spot. Small play.
Panthers plus-3 at Oakland: The Raiders are coming off an oddball trip to Mexico City and a big win. There has to be a letdown here and the Panthers should take advantage. Small play.
Calgary -9.5 over Ottawa: The Stamps are historically good. They have been dominant all year and should have no issues here. Ottawa was the best of a bad Eastern Division. Strong play.