Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
We are pretty much done with horse racing until Sam Houston starts in January. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.
Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way. The idea is if you have a game you are already interested in and see it here, you will simply have a second opinion.
Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
Colorado plus 9 against Washington: The Huskies are really, really good. Colorado is not as sexy, but they play a tough, hang in there style. Still up in the air on this one and might not play it, but leaning toward Colorado if I make a play. (Thank goodness I passed on this. All the numbers said Colorado, but my eyes were telling me Washington might house them. Trusted the eyes and saved some money).
Oklahoma State plus-11 at Oklahoma: The Sooners are the better team, and have steadily improved all season. But Okie State can score, it’s a rivalry game, and 11 is a lot of points. Solid play. I like the over in this one as well.
Virginia Tech plus 10 vs. Clemson: Justin Fuente has done a nice job in his first year with the Hokies, and all the pressure is on Clemson, which is playing for a shot at the playoffs. Clemson wins, but Hokies keep it close. Medium play.
The computer also says Baylor should cover against West Virginia. As bad as Baylor has looked of late, I can not in good conscience pull the trigger on that.
I am not playing these games, but several people have asked for opinions, so here goes…The Penn State Wisconsin line is perfect here. I would lean Penn State and the under. Don’t have a great feel but if you are already leaning that way and DO have a strong opinion, there you go. Also, Alabama -24 vs. Florida. I think Alabama eats Florida’s soul today, but the reality is the Tide is in the playoff no matter what. So not going to fault a play either way. Gun to my head I take Bama.
Detroit plus 6 and over 52.5 vs. New Orleans: The Lions offense should be able to handle a shootout with the Saints, and this should be close. The total is high, but the Saints have been money on overs, especially at home. Small play on the Lions, strong play on the over.
Tampa-San Diego over 47.5: The Chargers can score but are vulnerable on defense. The Bucs are sneaky good on offense. Think this turns into a shootout and goes over the total. Medium play.