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The weekend gambling guide with colleges and NFL

Not much left on the schedule, so the plays are slowing down. We had a couple bad weeks but overall it has been a very solid season. (You can skip past the disclaimer if you have read it before).
Here is our weekly disclaimer: Keep in mind these are opinions. And they are free. We’re not selling you picks, and you can’t move on these games as if they have already been played. If you want to learn the methodology, pick up a copy of the awesome audio book An Introduction to Sports Betting: Blitz Style. I will let you know which games I am actually playing, and also provide some opinions on other games.

Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings.  It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.

We are pretty much done with horse racing until Sam Houston starts in January. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.

Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way. The idea is if you have a game you are already interested in and see it here, you will simply have a second opinion.

Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.

OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:

COLLEGES

Army plus-6 vs. Navy. Navy is the better team. It has dominated this rivalry in recent years. But this is the best Army team in years, and Navy will be on a third-string quarterback and backup RB. In addition, The Middies are coming off a brutal loss to Temple in the AAC Championship game. The extra week and injuries should keep it close. Solid play.

NFL

Chicago-Detroit over 43.5: The Lions offense is humming, and the Bears have been better with Matt Barkley. Indoor game should provide enough scoring. SOLID PLAY.

Atlanta -6 over St. Louis: The Falcons have bounced back from tough losses all year. The Rams are circling the drain. SOLID PLAY.

Saints-Buccaneers over 51: We will keep riding the Saints over train, which has been solid all year (not last week). SMALL PLAY.

Good luck and check back Sunday for updates.

 

 

1 Comment on The weekend gambling guide with colleges and NFL

  1. Had a few not going my way so I moved into in play betting and resurrected those games. Love mybookie for that

    Like

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