Also, a reminder that one tool I use is a computer program devised by a really smart gambler I knew that uses the Sagarin Ratings, a scaled home field database (Ohio State’s home edge is worth more than Rice’s, for instance) and an injury/cluster injury rating. When lines are 6-8 points off what it spills out, it hits at roughly 60 percent. When the lines are 10 or more off, it is about 88 percent. I mention it because you will see me refer to my “computer ratings” on occasion. Like anything, they are just an extra tool. You can devise your own using Sagarin ratings. It’s just an additional thing I use along with common sense handicapping, the eye test and opinions I have developed on certain teams.
We are pretty much done with horse racing until Sam Houston starts in January. If you want to learn the horse racing methodology, Acing Racing 2016 is another great audio book.
Finally, if I did not include a game here, I have no opinion on it. I get a lot of “what do you think of so and so -20 vs. so and so” questions. The answer in advance is no opinion either way. The idea is if you have a game you are already interested in and see it here, you will simply have a second opinion.
Also, if you don’t bet, don’t start just because some dickweed radio guy does it. People can and do lose money. This is just to help those who are already doing it hopefully avoid having to sell their car.
OK, enough disclaiming. Here we go:
Army plus-6 vs. Navy. Navy is the better team. It has dominated this rivalry in recent years. But this is the best Army team in years, and Navy will be on a third-string quarterback and backup RB. In addition, The Middies are coming off a brutal loss to Temple in the AAC Championship game. The extra week and injuries should keep it close. Solid play.
Chicago-Detroit over 43.5: The Lions offense is humming, and the Bears have been better with Matt Barkley. Indoor game should provide enough scoring. SOLID PLAY.
Atlanta -6 over St. Louis: The Falcons have bounced back from tough losses all year. The Rams are circling the drain. SOLID PLAY.
Saints-Buccaneers over 51: We will keep riding the Saints over train, which has been solid all year (not last week). SMALL PLAY.
Good luck and check back Sunday for updates.