This year’s Kentucky Derby looks like an old school, longshot filled race. The favorites are vulnerable (and not that good) and for the first time in several years, we could be looking at a massive payoff. There is no California Chrome, Nyquist or especially the great American Pharoah to kill the odds (and make the betting on the race easier).
There will be no official picks until after the draw, but the two horses that intrigue me most are Gunnevara and Lookin at Lee. Both figure to be monster prices. After tomorrow’s draw we will have a better idea.
(Before you ask, “what about this horse?”…Please be patient. We will hit on all of them).
We will also provide more Derby coverage than ever this week:
After the draw, we will post a complete horse-by-horse breakdown with key horses and a few potential plays.
We will also have a full Derby podcast on pregame.com with RJ Bell for the first time. It will delve into this year’s race and how to approach it.
Also, there will be a Triple Crown podcast on pregame that details how we have hit 10 of the last 12 trifectas and how to approach Triple Crown wagering.
Finally, our premium picks (the trifecta and pick four and undercard plays) will be available on pregame for a nominal fee. You will get everything else for free, and if you have listened to Acing Racing 2016 you will be able to figure out most of my plays.
We are trying this on a test basis to gauge interest. The idea is to give you more free stuff than ever before, while also providing premium content for people who want specific plays I will be making on Derby Day.
There is still some research to be done, but Lookin at Lee is a horse I have followed closely since he was a 2-year-old. He always fires a decent shot, but rarely wins. However, I think the 1 1/4 miles hits him between the eyes, and if he can get a clean trip (no guarantee in a 20-horse field) I think he will be a serious factor. Watch how many times he shifts paths in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby, where he finished third. He was at least second best and with the extra ground he should be rolling late and will be well over 20-1.
Gunnevara was third behind a soft pace in the Florida Derby. When he has gotten hot paces to run at, he has been a monster. I suspect we will see an effort like we did here:
The post draw will be huge, so we will have more details after that. But this looks like a race where we can make some serious coin if we hit.