News Ticker

Harvey Update: Round 1 may be done but the fight isn’t over yet

Well everyone depending on where you are in the area you have either weathered or are currently weathering round one of Harvey,  Apparently Fred and AJ’s flight made it in last night so I guess the show is over now – everyone go home. JUST KIDDING.

Rain has been heavy and winds have been gusty at times but by and large we have not had major flooding issues yet. The biggest problem overnight came from a few tornadoes that touched town most notably in the Missouri City and Katy areas.  These tornados appear to have been a bit stronger than the typical tropical system tornadoes, causing a good amount of damage to homes and businesses.  I am curious to see how strong the National Weather Service rates them. Thankfully injuries were few and minor, but that is exactly why I mentioned in my previous posts that you need to be aware of the possibility of tornadoes and be prepared to act quickly.  I anticipate that the tornado threat will diminish throughout the day, but still be aware of the possibility if you find yourself under an intense rain band.

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Radar loop from last night into this morning.

I have unfortunately seen some people on social media declaring this event a bust because we didn’t all float away last night. That is simply not the case. For days forecasters have been saying that the real threat for our area will not begin until Sunday or even Monday. You may recall that Allison did not deliver its knockout punch until 4 days after it initially made landfall.  Now is not the time to let your guard down on this event.

With that said that past few runs of the GFS computer model (often referred to as the American model on TV) have been trending in a more positive direction for our purposes.  It keeps Harvey down in south Texas until it completely falls apart by the end of the week. This solution also drops our rain totals to a much more manageable 12-15 inches.

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GFS computer model from this morning showing movements of Harvey thru mid-day Thursday. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

However, the European computer model – which despite what you may have heard about making America great again, does routinely outperform the American model – brings whats left of Harvey up to around the College Station area by Thursday night.  With this type of solution we would still be looking at 15-20+ inches of rain.

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European computer model from this morning showing movements of Harvey thru Thursday afternoon. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

What is important though is that neither model is showing Harvey moving back out into the Gulf for a significant amount of time.  Although we can hope that this is a positive trend I stress that it by no means signals that we are out of the woods yet.  There is still a ton of uncertainty due to the lack of steering currents in the atmosphere.

Quick fight note: I know many of you are probably concerned about being able to see the fight tonight. I do not think power should be an issue, but rain may interrupt your viewing if you have satellite service.

My advice right now is stay tuned and please do not let your guard down yet, we are only just getting started.

As always you can follow me or send me questions on Twitter @stephenuzick

 

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